AGP Executive Report

Digital Payments: PawaPay has won a Bank of Mozambique licence to onboard merchants directly and connect them to the country’s three mobile-money networks, which together have more than 12 million active accounts. Nacala Port: The government plans to select a private operator by March 2027, aiming to attract investment and raise cargo traffic. But the port’s challenges extend beyond operations: a commercial dispute involving about $150 million in agricultural commodities is now before arbitration, with allegations against Mozambique not yet settled. Mining: Abu Dhabi’s IRH has made a takeover offer for Kenmare Resources, operator of the Moma titanium mine, as Mozambique negotiates an extension of the company’s mineral-processing and export rights. Regional Business: Mozambique and the Republic of the Congo signed 10 cooperation agreements spanning oil and gas, maritime activity, tourism and small businesses; Botswana and Mozambique also agreed to elevate their partnership to a presidentially chaired Binational Commission. Investment and Energy: Tete hosted an investment conference promoting opportunities in mining, agriculture, energy, tourism and logistics. Separately, UK-backed funding for clean-energy projects across eight African countries includes Mozambique.

Mining: Abu Dhabi-based IRH has offered to acquire Kenmare Resources, which operates Mozambique’s Moma titanium mine. The proposal comes as Kenmare negotiates an extension of its mineral-processing and export rights with the government. Economic Outlook: The government has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9%, from 2.8%, citing floods and economic shocks. El Niño could add pressure, with rainfall deficits expected in southern and central regions. Business Finance: The Bank of Mozambique is introducing 18-month financing mechanisms to encourage lending to firms expanding exports and replacing imports. Banks can offset eligible new loans against required reserves. Payments: PawaPay has secured a central bank licence to onboard merchants directly, opening a regulated route into a mobile-money market with more than 12 million active accounts. Public Finances: The government plans to address 81.3 billion meticais in unpaid obligations, including supplier arrears, and prevent new debts from accumulating. Agriculture: Cashew smuggling cost the state 457 million meticais over three years, with about 35,000 tonnes diverted from formal trade.

Growth Outlook: Mozambique has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9%, from 2.8%, as flooding and economic shocks weigh on activity. The government says it is pursuing a recovery plan, while El Niño could bring further disruption. Public Finances: The government plans to validate and address 81.3 billion meticais in supplier debt, including annual payments of 6 billion meticais to small suppliers, and introduce controls to prevent new arrears. Business Credit: The central bank has launched 18-month financing measures to encourage lending to companies that expand exports or replace imports, backed by a mutual guarantee fund. Trade: Cashew smuggling cost the state 457 million meticais over three years, with about 35,000 tonnes diverted from formal channels, the agriculture minister says. Climate Finance: The EU has raised $47 million to support Mozambique’s climate response and access to sustainable energy.

Mining Finance: Syrah Resources has secured a binding US government loan for its Balama graphite mine, with the earliest disbursement expected in November. The funding eases near-term pressure, though production, Mozambique policy and customer qualification remain key tests. Gas Investment: Mozambique is seeking deeper cooperation with Russian firms including Gazprom and NOVATEK to develop gas fields, boost LNG exports and train local specialists; Russian companies have also expressed interest in Rovuma Basin projects. Moma Takeover: Kenmare Resources, which operates the Moma titanium mine, has received a preliminary cash acquisition proposal from IRH. No price or terms have been disclosed, and IRH has until November 17 to make a firm offer or walk away. Public Finance: The government plans annual allocations of MZN6bn to repay small-business suppliers and MZN6.4bn to fund its Development Bank, even as reported supplier arrears stand at MZN81.3bn. Trade Links: Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia are setting deadlines and responsibilities for Nacala Corridor projects, including the Chipata–Serenje railway connection and work on agricultural standards.

Public Finances: Mozambique plans to spend MZN6bn a year repaying suppliers, against MZN6.4bn annually for five years to capitalise a new development bank. The state’s reported supplier obligations stand at MZN81.3bn, leaving businesses short of working capital even as the bank aims to offer affordable, long-term loans. Mining Investment: Kenmare has confirmed a preliminary, non-binding cash takeover proposal from Abu Dhabi’s IRH for the company, which operates the Moma titanium mine. IRH has until 17 November to make a firm offer or walk away; Kenmare says 97% of its workforce is Mozambican. Gas Sector: Mozambique wants to deepen cooperation with Russian firms including Gazprom and NOVATEK on gas development and training local specialists, as it seeks to raise LNG production and exports. Transport: The government is promoting coastal shipping as a more competitive way to move goods, using the country’s 2,700-kilometre coastline to ease pressure on roads and strengthen regional logistics. Agribusiness: Nampula’s governor has pitched the province’s oilseed, edible-oil processing and agro-industrial opportunities to Indian investors.

Mozambique National Dialogue: Mozambique’s Inclusive National Dialogue has moved to consolidating proposals after diaspora public hearings ended, with 10 working groups now organising inputs from citizens abroad across nine countries. Energy & Investment: Mozambique’s Nampula Province is pitching Indian and international investors on oilseed cultivation and edible oil processing, as Asia-Africa agribusiness talks in Mumbai highlight trade and technology partnerships. Mining & Takeovers: Kenmare Resources confirmed it received a non-binding buyout proposal from Abu Dhabi’s IRH, keeping talks open as the company runs Mozambique’s Moma titanium mine. Crime & Finance: A Mozambican businessman, Norolamin Gulam, was sentenced in the US to 135 months for money laundering linked to drug proceeds, with the case tied to the Homeland Security Task Force. Security & Economy: Islamic State Mozambique has increased attacks in Cabo Delgado districts, tightening security and constraining commercial and humanitarian activity. Regional Trade Risk: EU suspended Namibian beef imports over foot-and-mouth fears, a reminder of how disease outbreaks can quickly disrupt southern African export earnings.

Mozambique National Dialogue: Mozambique’s Inclusive National Dialogue has moved into proposal consolidation after diaspora public hearings, with 10 working groups now organizing inputs across nine countries and reform scenarios spanning constitutional, moderate and adjustment options. Energy & investment: Africa Energy Week (AEW) 2026 opens in Cape Town on Oct 12-16, promising deal-focused forums across upstream, finance, additions, and downstream/petrochemicals. Agribusiness push: Nampula is courting Indian investors via the Asia Africa Agri Alliance, pitching oilseed cultivation and edible oil processing to build regional value chains. Mining takeover watch: Kenmare Resources confirmed a non-binding cash offer proposal from Abu Dhabi’s IRH, sending shares sharply higher; talks continue with an Irish rules deadline of Nov 17. Trade shock: The EU suspended imports of Namibian beef after foot-and-mouth disease, threatening jobs and exports across southern Africa including Mozambique. Finance & governance: A Mozambican businessman, Norolamin Gulam, was sentenced in the US to 135 months over a money-laundering conspiracy linked to drug proceeds. Transport pressure: Fuel shortages are driving up bus fares and pushing commuters to hitch rides and black-market fuel.

Mozambique Energy & LNG: TotalEnergies says Mozambique LNG momentum is back, framing the project push around local jobs, skills and supplier participation, not just cargoes and revenues. ENH Leadership: Mozambique’s national hydrocarbons company ENH is entering a “consequential chapter” under Rudêncio Morais, with a focus on strengthening commercial capability and expanding domestic gas infrastructure. Insurance & Risk Finance: A new regional outlook argues East and Southern Africa’s insurance penetration is still tiny, leaving households, SMEs and infrastructure underprotected and calling for stronger cross-border risk-financing. Mining & Corporate Moves: Kenmare Resources confirms ongoing talks with International Resources Holdings over a possible cash offer; the company runs the Moma titanium mine in northern Mozambique. Fuel Crisis Spillover (Malawi): Malawi’s fuel shortage is driving bus fares sharply higher and pushing commuters to hitch rides, highlighting how transport costs can quickly hit small businesses. Regional Security Cooperation: Tanzania and Mozambique opened a joint defence and security commission meeting in Dar es Salaam, with border protection and immigration management on the agenda. Mozambique LNG Supply Chain: Separate reporting notes LNG market shifts and supplier diversification pressures that could affect regional gas trade dynamics.

Mozambique–Belarus Diplomacy: First Deputy FM Sergey Lukashevich received Mozambique’s ambassador credentials, agreeing to keep political dialogue active with a push to deepen economic cooperation. Cabo Delgado Security & Rights: Mozambique’s army is still struggling in counter-insurgency despite foreign training, with civilians reporting ongoing abuses that weaken community support for defeating militants. Mining in Mozambique: Gemfields set a new Montepuez Ruby Mining target to process 11.39m tonnes by June 2029, even as it booked a $125.2m impairment tied to weaker high-quality ruby recovery and commissioning delays. Public Finance Oversight: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% GDP contraction in 2025, revenues at 94.5% of plan, and a smaller-than-projected deficit. Agriculture & Food Security: President Daniel Chapo backed stronger Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation, highlighting the Wanbao rice farm model and wheat trials in Gaza. Energy & Investment Outlook: Chapo and US President Donald Trump discussed future Millennium Challenge Account projects, including infrastructure, critical minerals, agriculture and counter-terrorism. Regional Business & Trade: Botswana–Mozambique trade ambitions were set through a new commission targeting concrete economic results.

Mozambique–China Agriculture: President Daniel Chapo visited the Wanbao rice farm in Gaza, calling for stronger Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation and scaling the Chinese-invested model to boost food production and farmer yields. Mozambique–US Projects: Chapo met Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UN Summit in New York to discuss future Millennium Challenge Account projects, including infrastructure, health, critical minerals, agriculture and anti-terrorism cooperation. Mozambique–Botswana Trade Push: Mozambique and Botswana agreed to upgrade ties into a Bi-National Commission aimed at turning decades of diplomacy into trade, investment, production and jobs, with current goods flows still far below potential. Cabo Delgado Mining Update: Gemfields recorded a $125.2m impairment tied to revised ruby recovery outlooks at Montepuez, even as total ruby and corundum output rose in the first half of 2026. Public Finance Check: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% economic contraction and a budget deficit of 101.3bn meticais. Climate Risk for Southern Africa: El Niño is expected to worsen drought and food insecurity risks across southern and central Mozambique and South Africa, with Mozambique flagged by a UN expert as among the most vulnerable to climate impacts. Local Content in Energy Services: Techdrilling opened a new Pemba office to bring inspection, testing and HSE training closer to Mozambique’s oil and gas operations, supporting locally certified expertise.

Agribusiness & Food Security: President Daniel Chapo urged deeper Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation after visiting the Wanbao rice farm in Gaza, saying the model could be scaled nationwide to boost food production. Public Finance Oversight: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% economic contraction in 2025, revenues at 364.5bn meticais, and a deficit of 101.3bn meticais. Mining & Investor Sentiment: Gemfields booked a $125.2m impairment tied to weaker high-quality ruby recovery outlooks at its Cabo Delgado operation, even as overall production rose. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Mozambique and Botswana agreed to upgrade ties into a bi-national commission aimed at turning diplomatic cooperation into trade, investment and infrastructure results. Energy & Local Capacity: Techdrilling opened a new Pemba office to bring inspection and safety training closer to Cabo Delgado oil and gas operations, while ROSCONSULT and other Mozambican firms push local delivery across the energy value chain. Climate Risk: A UN expert warned Mozambique is among Africa’s most vulnerable to the 2026 super El Niño, with drought, heatwaves and food insecurity risks rising. SME-Led Growth: Nedbank Mozambique’s MD said SME expansion is key to diversifying the economy beyond extractives, highlighting financing for local manufacturers.

Mozambique–Botswana Trade Push: Mozambique and Botswana agreed to upgrade ties into a Bi-National Commission, aiming to turn political goodwill into trade, investment and infrastructure gains after Chapo’s visit and business forum in Gaborone. Climate Risk for Mozambique: The UN warns Mozambique is among Africa’s most vulnerable to the 2026 “super El Niño,” with drought, heatwaves and food insecurity risks—especially as the country faces economic strain after earlier floods. LNG Expansion Under Fire: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Phase 2 Mozambique LNG expansion, while Justiça Ambiental and others urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders over unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Local Business Capacity: Techdrilling opened a new Pemba office to bring inspection, testing and HSE training closer to Cabo Delgado oil and gas operations, while ROSCONSULT highlights growing Maputo-based consultancy capacity across energy, mining and compliance. SME Focus for Growth: Nedbank Mozambique says SME expansion is key to diversifying the economy amid debt and forex pressure, pointing to local manufacturers like Merec. Governance Watch: Mozambique’s Finance Ministry suspended a controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursement after procurement irregularities were flagged.

Oil & Gas Local Capacity: Techdrilling opened a new operational office in Muxara, Pemba, to bring inspection, testing and HSE training closer to Cabo Delgado operators and contractors. Energy & LNG Politics: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Mozambique LNG Phase 2 expansion, while campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders for 17 LNG carriers over unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Local Business Growth: ROSCONSULT, based in Maputo with presence in Pemba, Nacala and Vilanculos, is positioning Mozambican technical consulting for energy, mining, water and HSE work across the region. Climate Risk & Human Rights: A UN expert warns Mozambique is among Africa’s most vulnerable to the 2026 super El Niño, calling for tighter safeguards to avoid fossil-fuel lock-in and protect rights amid drought, floods and food insecurity. SME Focus: Nedbank Mozambique says SME growth is key to diversifying the economy as forex and public-debt pressures bite, highlighting financing for local manufacturers. Public Procurement Scrutiny: Mozambique’s finance ministry suspended controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursements after procurement irregularities were flagged. Trade & Agriculture: Mozambique and a Chinese business group signed an MoU to boost cassava production and export, targeting one million boxes and integrating small-scale farmers. Banking & Compliance: The Bank of Mozambique reminded lenders they can freeze accounts on reasonable grounds of fraud, money laundering or terrorist financing without waiting for a court order.

SME-Led Growth Focus: Nedbank Mozambique’s MD Joel Rodrigues says the country’s growth potential hinges on diversifying via SMEs, while highlighting how firms like Merec are scaling food production and distribution. Banking Compliance: Mozambique’s central bank reminded lenders they can freeze accounts on reasonable grounds of fraud, money laundering or terrorist financing without waiting for court orders. LNG Expansion Under Pressure: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Mozambique LNG Phase 2 work, as campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders over human-rights and community concerns. Crypto Custody Push: Absa becomes Africa’s first bank to offer institutional crypto custody in South Africa, targeting a $1.5bn market and eyeing expansion across the region subject to approvals. Public Procurement Scrutiny: Mozambique’s finance ministry suspended a controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursement after procurement irregularities were flagged. Trade & Jobs Link: Mozambique and China’s Long Ran signed an MoU to boost cassava production and export, targeting one million boxes and integrating smallholders. Pensions Under Strain: Government admits pension payments under the Basic Social Subsidy Programme face funding constraints, with no near-term plans to raise benefits. Climate Risk Costs: A UN expert warns Mozambique must avoid fossil-fuel lock-in to protect human rights and climate resilience.

Banking Oversight: Mozambique’s central bank reminded lenders they can freeze accounts within 48 hours when there are reasonable grounds to suspect fraud, money laundering or terrorist financing—without waiting for a court order. LNG & Corporate Scrutiny: TotalEnergies is weighing Mozambique LNG Phase 2 acceleration, while campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders for LNG carriers amid unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Public Procurement Watch: Mozambique’s Finance Ministry suspended a controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursement of 49.5m meticais after procurement irregularities were flagged. Climate & Rights: A UN expert warned Mozambique risks deepening fossil-fuel dependency, urging a human-rights-based climate resilience path. Trade & Agriculture: Mozambique’s Chamber of Commerce and a Chinese group signed an MoU to boost cassava production and export to China, targeting one million boxes. Social Protection: Government said pension payments have faced funding constraints, though payments have resumed and increases are not immediate. Regional Transport: Malawi intensified plans for a north-bound railway to connect to the Tanzania–Zambia network to cut transport costs.

Banking & Rates: Mozambique’s central bank kept the benchmark MIMO rate at 9.25% and adjusted reserve rules, citing climate shocks, slow recovery and risks to fuel/food prices, while adding an export- and import-replacement lending incentive. FX & LNG Link: Bank of Mozambique data shows banks bought $5.73bn in foreign currency from January–August, driven by Rovuma LNG project execution and extractives, despite constraints from delayed public-debt servicing. Climate Cost: Flood damage in Mozambique’s Dec 2025–Jan 2026 rainy season is estimated at about 2% of GDP, with Gaza and Maputo hit hardest and major pressure on public finances. Energy Security: A UN official warned that disruptions to fertilizer shipments via the Strait of Hormuz could cut fertilizer use and worsen food insecurity, naming Mozambique among the most exposed. Trade & Diplomacy: Russia–Mozambique trade rose 78% in the first half of 2026 as both sides met in Moscow on deeper economic and technical cooperation, including geology exploration. Oilseed Corridor: India’s SEA signed a Nampula agreement to explore a sustainable oilseed/edible-oil corridor, aiming to diversify India’s import sources and support farmers. Security & Transport: Mozambique denied a fuel shortage after queues linked to weekend logistics; meanwhile, drug control legislation is being revised to tackle synthetic drugs and new trafficking patterns. Aviation Shock: A Flydubai cockpit stabbing and alleged attempted crash in a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight is renewing focus on crew-linked hijacking risks.